football and formula 1, modelled

Every match, modelled. Every call, on the record.

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Fri 21 Aug · 20:00 BST

Arsenal

Coventry City

0%ARSto win · 100,000 simsCOV0%

See the match modelled How it works

public record

The sample is tiny. The ledger is permanent.

Every pre-match call sits beside the result, including the misses when they arrive.

Settled: 0
Exact scores: 0
Right calls: 0

upcoming

Premier League · Matchweek 1

ArsenalvCoventry City

Fri 21 Aug · 20:00 BST · Emirates Stadium, London

78% ARS15% drawCOV 7%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Hull CityvManchester United

Sat 22 Aug · 12:30 BST · MKM Stadium, Hull

17% HUL22% drawMUN 61%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

EvertonvCrystal Palace

Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST · Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

44% EVE28% drawCRY 28%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Ipswich TownvSunderland

Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST · Portman Road, Ipswich

34% IPS29% drawSUN 37%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Nottingham ForestvLeeds United

Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST · The City Ground, Nottingham

42% NFO28% drawLEE 30%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

BrentfordvTottenham Hotspur

Sat 22 Aug · 17:30 BST · Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford

41% BRE26% drawTOT 33%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Brighton & Hove AlbionvAston Villa

Sun 23 Aug · 14:00 BST · American Express Stadium, Brighton

39% BHA27% drawAVL 34%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Manchester CityvAFC Bournemouth

Sun 23 Aug · 14:00 BST · Etihad Stadium, Manchester

63% MCI19% drawBOU 18%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

Newcastle UnitedvLiverpool

Sun 23 Aug · 16:30 BST · St James' Park, Newcastle

32% NEW24% drawLIV 44%

Premier League · Matchweek 1

FulhamvChelsea

Mon 24 Aug · 20:00 BST · Craven Cottage, London

33% FUL27% drawCHE 40%

Formula 1 · Round 10 of 22

Belgian Grand Prix

Antonelli held off Leclerc for a sixth win of the season and extended his title lead, after George Russell retired from an early crash.

34.2% Antonellimodel favourite

Formula 1 · Round 11 of 22

Hungarian Grand Prix

Sun 26 July · 15:00 CEST (14:00 BST) · Hungaroring

32.8% Antonellimodel favourite

full time

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Final

SpainvArgentina

1–0FT

The model's verdict was Spain 1–0, the exact score, sealed in extra time.

55.5% ESPto lift the trophyARG 44.5%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Semi-final

EnglandvArgentina

1–2FT

The model's verdict was Argentina 2–1, the exact score.

47% ENGto reach the finalARG 53%

competitions

Premier League2026/27

Champions League2026/27

Fixtures soon

from the journal

All posts

Modelling27 July 2026 · 8 min read

The two Euro 2028 hosts who cannot miss

Method27 July 2026 · 7 min read

Why we will not call Euro 2028 yet

Analysis27 July 2026 · 7 min read

Casement Park and the stadium that was not built

players

All players

Lionel MessiForward Cristiano RonaldoForward Kylian MbappéForward NeymarForward Lamine YamalWinger Harry KaneStriker Jude BellinghamMidfielder Erling HaalandStriker Mohamed SalahForward Bukayo SakaWinger Cole PalmerAttacking midfielder Alexander IsakStriker Florian WirtzAttacking midfielder Zinédine ZidaneAttacking midfielder Ronaldo NazárioStriker RonaldinhoAttacking midfielder Diego MaradonaAttacking midfielder PeléForward Johan CruyffForward XaviCentral midfielder Andrés IniestaCentral midfielder Thierry HenryForward Steven GerrardMidfielder Gianluigi BuffonGoalkeeper Franz BeckenbauerDefender Roberto BaggioSecond striker Paolo MaldiniDefender Alfredo Di StéfanoForward Vinícius JúniorWinger RodriDefensive midfielder Kevin De BruyneMidfielder Robert LewandowskiStriker Virgil van DijkCentre-back PedriMidfielder Luka ModrićMidfielder Son Heung-minForward Bruno FernandesMidfielder Jamal MusialaAttacking midfielder Lautaro MartínezStriker Federico ValverdeMidfielder David BeckhamMidfielder Zlatan IbrahimovićStriker Wayne RooneyForward RaphinhaWinger

the method

How the model worksBivariate Poisson goals, 100,000 seeded runs per match, calibrated against the market, and receipts that stay up after full time. Not betting advice.

Read the method

ArsenalvCoventry City

Hull CityvManchester United

EvertonvCrystal Palace

Ipswich TownvSunderland

Nottingham ForestvLeeds United

BrentfordvTottenham Hotspur

Brighton & Hove AlbionvAston Villa

Manchester CityvAFC Bournemouth

NUNewcastle UnitedvLiverpoolLFC

FulhamvChelsea

Belgian Grand Prix

Hungarian Grand Prix

SpainvArgentina

EnglandvArgentina

The two Euro 2028 hosts who cannot miss

Why we will not call Euro 2028 yet

Casement Park and the stadium that was not built

The brief, the morning of the match

Newcastle UnitedvLiverpool